From Saxonwold to Beijing — South Africa Cannot Afford a Second State Capture
- Mpho Dube
- 6 days ago
- 4 min read
By Mpho Dube, Editor-in-Chief,
The Azanian
Truth. Fearless. Unfiltered.
South Africans know the cost of state capture.
We lived it. Under former President Jacob Zuma, the Gupta family turned our government into a private ATM. Ministries became branch offices of Saxonwold, SOEs were looted, and Parliament was reduced to theatre while billions vanished.
The Guptas fled, but the scars remain: hollowed-out institutions, record unemployment, and a trust deficit that still haunts the ANC.
That is why the warning signs flashing around President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 7th administration cannot be ignored. The ANC entered this term already wounded. Ramaphosa never enjoyed a clean runway. He inherited the Gupta mess, then faced Covid-19, the July 2021 unrest, rolling blackouts, and a stagnant economy.
In 2024, voters delivered their verdict: the ANC dropped to 40% nationally and was forced into a Government of National Unity. In Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the party’s heartlands, it was humiliated. Only Limpopo delivered 74% locally, but that was not enough to mask the national decline.
A president who governs with 40% does not have the luxury of scandal. Yet scandal is exactly what has arrived at the door of the Union Buildings, parked in the driveway like an uninvited guest.
The latest allegations are deceptively modest: five BAIC X55 SUVs, worth about R500,000 each, donated by Chinese representatives in late 2023. But the political footprint is massive.
The vehicles were allegedly meant for the ANC Women’s League. Instead, they reportedly ended up with ANCWL president and Social Development Minister Sisisi Tolashe and ANC second deputy secretary-general Maropene Ramokgopa, who serves as Minister of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation.
None were declared in Parliament’s Register of Members’ Interests for 2023, 2024, or 2025. A yellow BAIC is now registered to Ramokgopa’s son. Another has been spotted in Sada township, linked to a close associate.
Tolashe told Parliament she received “two luxury 4x4 vehicles” from “officials representing a foreign government” but argued there was “no need to declare” them because they were for the ANCWL. The ANC and ANCWL say they have no record of any donation.
On their own, these are disclosure violations. In context, they are political dynamite. Both ministers held positions in the Presidency when the cars allegedly changed hands.
Ramokgopa is one of Ramaphosa’s most trusted allies and the face of his “renewal” project. If renewal cannot account for a R500,000 SUV, how will it account for a R500-billion infrastructure programme?
Under Zuma, state capture began with gifts, trips, and “donations”. It ended with the Treasury captured, SARS compromised, and Transnet, Eskom and SAA gutted. The Guptas understood that sovereignty is a garment that unravels one thread at a time.
Today, China is South Africa’s largest trading partner and a key BRICS ally. That relationship is strategic and necessary. But strategy without transparency becomes vulnerability.
When ministers accept undeclared gifts from representatives of a foreign state, when Chinese firms donate cars that vanish into private hands, and when the Chinese embassy refuses to comment while DIRCO officials whisper that “they will be watching this closely”, we are replaying a film we have already seen.
The difference is scale. The Guptas were a family. China is a superpower with a 100-year plan. If the Gupta capture cost us R50-billion and a decade of growth, what would Chinese capture cost? Ports, rail, energy grids, and data infrastructure are not sold at auction. They are traded for silence, one SUV at a time.
President Ramaphosa is running out of political capital. He leads a GNU because the ANC lost its majority. He governs with partners who are measuring him for failure. The 2026 local elections are months away, and the ANC is bleeding support in metros it once owned. In this environment, perception becomes reality.
The public will not parse the difference between “a gift to the ANCWL” and “a gift to a minister”. They see luxury cars, Chinese links, and ministers who can’t get their stories straight. They remember that Zuma’s ministers also said “there was no need to declare”.
Ramaphosa came to power promising a “new dawn” and a clean break from the Zuma era. That promise is now being tested by his closest political circle. If he does not act decisively — suspensions, lifestyle audits, and full disclosure on all Chinese donations to the ANC and government since 2018 — then he owns the scandal. And if he owns the scandal, the ANC will own the electoral consequences.
South Africa cannot afford another decade of capture. We cannot afford to swap Saxonwold for Beijing. Foreign investment is welcome. Foreign influence is not. The rules are simple: declare every gift, publish every donation, and fire every official who thinks a ministerial post is a dealership.
The ANC survived the Guptas, but only just. It lost its majority, its moral authority, and chunks of its base. It is now a 40% party governing through coalition. Another capture scandal will not just cripple the ANC ahead of local and national elections. It will be the final nail in the coffin of its liberation legacy.
President Ramaphosa has two choices: tighten his grip on his administration and draw a hard line on foreign gifts, or watch history repeat itself with different accents.
The country has seen this movie before. We know how it ends.
The Azanian will monitor the situation and provide updates as they develop.
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