Middle East on Edge: Israel and Iran Teeter on Fragile Ceasefire

US President Donald Trump

A dramatic ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump has brought a temporary halt to the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by intense missile exchanges and airstrikes that rattled the region and global markets.

The conflict began when Israel launched sweeping attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, killing multiple high-profile nuclear scientists and targeting missile bases. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on US bases in Qatar and Israel, prompting a stern warning from Trump. The US-brokered ceasefire was facilitated through Qatari mediation, with both countries agreeing to lay down arms.

However, the truce is strained, with both sides accusing each other of violating the agreement. Israel claimed Iran launched missiles into its airspace less than three hours after the ceasefire went into effect, killing at least four people in the city of Beersheba. Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the military to resume "intense operations" targeting Tehran, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would "respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire".

Iran agreed to halt attacks by 4 a.m. Tehran time, with Israel ceasing operations 12 hours later. Demilitarized buffer zones were established in southern Syria and along the Lebanon-Israel border, monitored by international forces. At least 4 civilians were killed in Beersheba, Israel, and 943 people were reported casualties in Iran, including 600 military personnel.

The ceasefire's future hangs in the balance as both sides navigate complex regional dynamics. Possible scenarios include: Iran refrains from further retaliation, and Israel halts direct strikes. Proxy wars and skirmishes resume, derailing the peace process. Multilateral negotiations lead to a more lasting peace agreement.